We're back with our annual predictions episode! First we run down what we said last year and checked if we got it correct - then, we get into high, medium, and low confidence predictions for Detroit, Metro Detroit, and Southeast Michigan.
Listen in the player below, and scroll down for a complete transcript.
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Jer Staes: Hello, and welcome to your Daily Detroit, sharing what to know and where to go in Southeast Michigan. Coming to you from our beautiful studio at TechTown in Detroit, Michigan, I am Jer Staes. It is Friday, and across the table from me is none other than the excellent Devon O'Reilly. It has been a minute. I missed you, man.
Devon O'Reilly: Yes, it was quite a break, and we're back. It's our first Friday episode officially of 2025, and I think it's going to be a good one.
Jer: I agree because what we're going to do is we're going to have our predictions episode.
Devon: People like that.
Jer: They do. We went through the data, and actually our predictions are among our like most popular episodes that we do. We're going to start the year with some.
But first, we're going to roll the tape back in the spirit of honesty.
Devon: Okay.
Jer: Let's talk about last year's predictions. And then we're going to talk about our high, medium, and low chance predictions for 2025. So are you ready?
Devon: Let's do it.
Let's turn on the truthinator, if you will. The first prediction is that the RenCen will be sold; GM would sell it by the end of the year. That it was an albatross is something that I said. I think that would be half right as they've partnered with Bedrock and are looking to offload it one way or another. This is clearly something they don't want to be a part of, and they did make the hard decision to move away from it.
Yeah, that's definitely more accurate than not. I mean, regarding who actually owns all of it or whatnot, I mean ... did they sell it?
It's still unclear exactly what the agreement is specifically, but certainly Bedrock is now a major part of this, and it's going to be really the lead in developing it as we go forward and kind of demo-ing it. And as you said, Albatross is definitely the right word because, as we said, we're gonna talk more about it in the predictions episode, but I think some big things are in store for the RenCen as we've already discussed.
The Penobscot Building would have movement.
Ooo. Did I say that? Yeah.
Sorry. Maybe that was wishful thinking.
Low confidence prediction.
It's becoming really unfortunate.
I'm almost getting upset that we have this building sitting right there in the middle of one of the crown jewels of the downtown skyline, and actually one of the crown jewels of kind of art deco architecture left in America in fact. One of the tallest is just sitting there rotting away. I mean that's just really unfortunate. I'm sad to say that I was wrong on that.
The hard part about this is to see the Penobscot and now see all these other buildings that were very difficult. The Book Tower, many others, the Metropolitan, happen. It shows you the difference in ownership.
And I'm not going to name names, but like, don't tell me it can't be done.
For sure, for sure.
There's no reason why it can't be done. It's just a matter of will and some money, but people have that. I'm not gonna make that prediction this year, but I do hope that, man, I hope there's some movement this year.
Mike Duggan, not running for mayor is correct. And I remember we got some hell for that one.
We got a lot of hell. People did not believe us at the time, this time last year.
That was kind of a reading the tea leaves type of situation. I think we both, not that we know anything that specifically anyone doesn't know, but I think our intuition served us pretty well in that.
I think it's more about having your finger on the pulse since looking at multiple sources and going, this is what actually makes sense. Now we, as we did recap, we did not expect that he would run independently.
No, no one saw that.
But that's a whole nother episode.
Gilly's sports bar. Do you think it was the most successful opening of 2024, the most successful?
I mean, I think it's hard to say. It was my prediction while I feel a position to defend it. I'm not saying like it was the most lauded, like the most highest rated. I know like there's been some complaints, but man, that place is packed all the time.
I would be hard pressed if you wanted to tell me a restaurant that opened, a restaurant bar that opened in Downtown Detroit or the greater downtown area that saw more business than Gilly's. I don't know. It's hard to say. That place is packed for games. It's packed at night. It's packed on weekends.
Sometimes, coming up this year, we will actually see the alcohol sales numbers that come out from the state. So we'll be able to see something, at least by the alcohol measure.
But that'll give us at least some measure, I'll give you that.
One thing that I did not expect was a proliferation of sports bars, adding Parlay, adding more stuff where it's like they got the message that people want to watch sports in Downtown.
Well, we didn't predict that, but we definitely talked about the need. Every time one opened, I think, you know, myself, Fletcher, Norris, you, I think we all agree, like, Detroit needs more sports bars. We need more places to watch sports in Downtown Detroit.
So, we didn't predict that, but we certainly kind of kept calling it like, yes, we need more, and another one, and another one. And I think we'll see more in 2025.
Well, I'll share one that I got wrong. Major transit announcement or two, that was pretty incorrect.
Now there was some minor work, important work, but minor work, making sure that all of Wayne County is now included into a transit system that with having no opt-out cities, but in reality, the state cut transit funding by 6%/. Steps back.
To be fair, that was a little more of your wishful thinking. I know you're a little bit more bull-ish on the transit than I am, and I know our listeners are as well.
So, unfortunate that that didn't come to fruition, but I guess at this point, I'm a little just apocalyptic about the state of transit and transportation in the region. I just don't feel good about it, unfortunately.
Unless there is somebody with a lot of money that has a direct vision like we were talking about up at the Mackinac [Policy Conference]. There was the talk about how Dan Gilbert might put some money into some things or whatever, unless you see like a major player do that, especially with the administration change?
Yeah. Yeah, it's even more bleak than it was before with the change in administration at a national level and the change at the state level in the legislature, we're going to be less desirous to do that.
What I will be interested to see is the state of transit event is coming up from Transit Riders United later this month. We'll see what they've got coming out of that. We'll do some reporting from it. Looking forward to it.
The Pistons did not get the number one pick.
Nailed it. That doesn't work like that for the Pistons, unfortunately. Fortunately, the Pistons' former number one pick, Cade Cunningham, has had what will soon be an All-Star season. He's gonna get selected to the All-Star game, as many believe, that's taking place in a few weeks here.
So he is really blossoming this year into, you know, everything we wanted him to be and more. So, no, we didn't get the number one pick. Pistons never get the luck. That's kind of how the Detroit sports teams roll. But a good news, our number one pick that we have a few years back has really come into his own to become a star.
Michigan 27, Alabama 20, and then your Michigan 27, Alabama 24. You called that bowl game. That was minor prediction, but I wanted to acknowledge you were way within it.
I'm patting myself on the back right now. Yes, I saw Michigan pulling that out. I knew it was gonna be close. That was one of my favorite memories.
I mean, it goes all the way back, but one of my favorite memories of 2024 was watching that game, truly. The Rose Bowl, the setting, what it all meant. I enjoyed watching that Alabama-Michigan game ending Nick Saban's career. I enjoyed watching that game and got more pleasure out of watching that game than even the national championship game.
Are you still basking in the national championship light as a U of M grad?
Oh, yeah.
I'm loving it.
We're good. We beat Alabama again this year, and we beat Ohio State.
It was a fantastic year, and I'm just going to, I'm gonna throw a shot across the bow here. I know Ohio State, as we speak, is still playing for a national title, but like, you want to talk about tainted titles? If Ohio State wins the national title, who cares? They didn't even win the Big Ten, and they lost to their biggest rival! So like, it'll be like the lamest national title ever if Ohio State ends up winning.
We'll fast forward to July ... that money and investment increasing over the next six months. And I will say that there are a number of new apartments going up. Some candidates for mayor are looking at reducing red tape, city council, pass an ordinance to help reduce red tape. So yeah, I think it's interesting, but I will say a lot of the action is happening outside of the District of Detroit.
It's happening a little outside of downtown sometimes. And I think that that's really interesting. I'm learning about new projects happening in the North End. And I was just walking by on the way home, a more than 40 unit apartment building that's being done near Woodward that's getting like no coverage, right? And I think there's a bunch of little developments happening out there where the narrative, I think we need to have a little bit of focus on the small.
Yeah, there's blame to share in that regard, but I'm not gonna be sympathetic to the whole downtown's only getting the development, downtown's only getting the activity and the money, that sort of thing. It's just not true, it's just a matter of how things are getting covered, what's getting covered.
There's just as much activity throughout the city of Detroit. It's just different types of projects, maybe smaller projects, and then certainly they're not getting the coverage, but there is just hives of activity all over, which is really exciting.
Let's go to the present day and look to the future. Devon O'Reilly.
I am looking forward to being hopefully more right than wrong here.
All right. Let's go with your first prediction. We're going to label them if you desire high, medium, or low. So let's start with a high prediction.
My high confidence prediction. And again, I don't know if I'm super high on any of these, like I'm at like 80% at my highest and like 40% at my lowest. There's not really that much deviation, but as we hash this out, I believe that the future mayor of Detroit, whoever that will be, he or she, has not announced their candidacy or made themselves known as of yet.
Oooh, I'm not sure about that one.
I feel strongly, again, it's the vibe check. It's the vibe check. I'm not saying there are not good candidates who have announced already and raised their hand. There's nothing wrong with them. My prediction is just that it hasn't happened yet. The person who will be the mayor has not announced yet. And I just, again, it's the vibe check. I don't feel anybody who's announced yet has that charisma, momentum, kind of mix of what we talked about that would carry someone to victory. So we'll see, but I think it's TBD. We still haven't seen the future mayor.
I will say, I think there's going to be some major retail announcements for the Bedrock Hudson site. I think we're coming near the home stretch.
Like major?
Major. Major. Because it's 2027 when all of this stuff is going to be done, so those announcements need to be in place soon.
That whole Woodward corridor is going to see some stuff. I think that, you know, obviously part of that site is going to be used for General Motors as a showroom and other things. But I think that we have the couple of trends of continuing of small as a new big that we talked about a couple of years ago, but also despite whatever the critics say, those name brands matter. And, they bring people down, and people shop there. When I go by the Gucci store ... look, I know all the hate, all the people did not believe that that would be a thing. And you know what? People are there all the damn time. It is popular. It is an unpopular opinion among some, but Detroit is more normal than not. And in normal cities, people like fancy stuff.
Yeah, I don't know what exactly we're talking about yet, but like big brands, like high-end luxury, but also just like, not an Apple store, but like an Apple store, because we're obviously getting an Apple store. But I'm thinking like, even, do we get our Target?
Do we get our City Target?
Oooh. I feel like we are really overdue for a city Target that could be it and I feel like there would be where they would do the deal or somewhere else other than what we talked about before which was Mack and what we're in. That whole thing. Alright, your turn.
This is my medium confidence. I'm going to say that all four Detroit sports teams.
Mm.
We'll make the playoffs in 2025. Okay, so let's think about what that means.
The Lions are already in, so check one box. The Red Wings and the Pistons are a little more precarious, but as I alluded to, the Pistons are frisky. They are currently, currently as we speak, 500, 18 and 18. They would be in the playoffs if the season started today, and I believe like the seven or eight seed. The Red Wings are on the outside looking in, but they're close. And they're hot. And in hockey, getting hot is important at the right time.
You are animated about basketball. Yes.
I'm very excited about the Pistons. It's been just a fantastic year. We won 14 games last year, the entire season. We've already won 18, and it's not even the All-Star break.
So yes, and then you got the Tigers who made the playoffs last year. I believe they made some moves to improve the roster. And so I think they can make the playoffs.
Again, that would be incredible to have all four teams. We can go back into our archives, have the Daily Detroit Archivist tell me when the last time all four teams made the playoffs is. I don't think it's been any time in recent memories.
This is my medium confidence prediction. I believe one of the top stories in 2025 nationally will be the RenCen saga because we went back and I looked through the data. If it was about the RenCen, you wanted to listen to it. I go on YouTube, people are creators from all over the country doing stuff about the RenCen. It has the nation's eye as the concept of possible demolition, even partial demolition. This would be one of the biggest skyscraper demos in the world. And I hate to say it, but Detroit, with that narrative and everything else, it all fits together. People are fascinated by it. They have strong opinions of it, whether you love it, whether you hate it. I just saw even just the few stories that we did in 2024. I think there is going to be so much attention around the RenCen, and it's not just like media attention, but the people are interested in this story. It's so clear.
There are episodes about the RenCen that got like 70% more downloads than the average because the RenCen trumped all.
It's a sexy topic, and I think people still don't listen to us, as I look on social media sometimes. Clearly there's either non-Daily Detroit listeners or people still kind of like with wild speculation. Our speculation here at this point is very focused, and I just want to be clear about that because you remind me sometimes that you have to say things more than once for people to really like sink in, and I've said it before, please do not think they are tearing down the middle tower of the RenCen. It's not happening.
You don't even think, even with the threat of ...
no, no, they're not gonna tear it all down. No, no scenario where they tear it all down. Call it a prediction. No scenario where they tear it all down. It's two towers. I'm telling you, I will die on that hill. They're tearing down two of the towers, the front towers, and that's where they're gonna build off into the riverfront, really build out that space. That's where you could see, like I said, think of anything, water parks, movie theaters, anything you think of, it might happen.
There are a lot of people who are upset about the idea of state dollars going toward it. Do you think eventually there will be incentive dollars put in?
Yeah, I think they'll get the money. I think they can get the consensus. Again, it's not like something where the legislature has changed in its makeup, but it's something that, incentive dollars is kind of a bipartisan in a way. Certainly far right and far left people don't like it, but a lot of people in the middle do, pro-business Republicans like it, centrist Democrats like it, and so I think they can build enough of a coalition here to pass this through.
And yeah, not only that, Jer, my mini-prediction to tag along off of that is that I think we're gonna start seeing the demo. The demo will begin in 2025, because once they get this sign-off on the dollars, which I think will happen in the first part of the legislative session this year, no reason to stop them, they're gonna start.
And I think Dan and Bedrock and GM is very desirous to get this underway.
Okay, a secondary question, even though this is a predictions episode, there are some that say because of the change in leadership, Detroit is going to be on the outs as far as getting support and money. Do you think that that's the case, or do you think that there's going to be cases where Republicans and Democrats come together?
Do you mean ... in what leadership? National leadership?
National. And also, the House is now Republican and the state.
I would push back against saying that Detroit is not necessarily a fully partisan city. There's no reason that a Republican legislature would turn a blind eye to Detroit. There's plenty of Fortune 500 companies and Fortune 1000 and big businesses run by very conservative people who exist in Downtown Detroit. So I don't think Detroit is this monolithic, progressive city, and we talk about this too. I mean, not to get too political, but it's not monolithic like that.
And I just think that Republicans and Democrats can share an interest in developing and continue to pushing progress in Detroit. And at the national level, we'll see. I mean, the president elect is quite a transactional person who goes with the way the wind blows and with people who are in his ear. So there's really no telling if Detroit will get more or less attention. I assume more. I think we're a city to be watched. I think we're already a success story that will continue to be a success story.
On this next prediction ... that Detroit in the next year will have another sporting event.
Yeah, my twist on it is the announcement of a major sporting event. So, you know, we had the draft, we've had the NCAA tournament. I think we're gonna get, and this is one, this is my pie in the sky one. I'm not that confident because I literally have no knowledge.
I just know that we've been building hotels like crazy in the hopes of catching another big fish. And I know that, you watch this real quick, Jer, these NFL games with the Lions, someone released like the top three games this year. They're all Lions games. Yeah, you see now on national TV, and everyone watching, including the NFL, including the powers that be, are watching these Lions games and just this rabid fan base, how electric Ford Field can be, that we can host big games. I'm hoping this is a Super Bowl. I'm not gonna say it's just a Super Bowl, but I'm thinking either maybe we get this, we get the Super Bowl announcement, maybe it's like the NBA All-Star game. I'm not sure, but I think we get a big, big announcement.
And I feel with a little bit of lead time, it'll give time for those hotels to come online because there's even more coming down the pipe.
Yeah, I mean, the way the Super Bowl, it's not gonna be like next year, but like we would announce, you would get an announcement that let's say Super Bowl 2027 is going to be in Detroit or something like that.
Alright, end it out, my friend, with your final production.
So my final prediction is kind of a broad one, but you know, I think I've been going back and obviously our bread and butter is about town-ing and new things and things that are closing and things that are new. And I think that 2024 was a very difficult year, and it remains to be seen. I'm an optimist.
So I still think that more places open, but I could totally understand if someone feels like there was more closings than openings in 2024. I would not push back on that. But I do think that a lot of that got out of the way. There was still that tail from COVID of the places that were hanging on for the few years past and just couldn't do it anymore or places where people just decided to retire and conditions changed.
But I am optimistic, surprisingly, for 2025 and I think that we will have more restaurant and store openings in Detroit than closings.
restaurant and store and bar? All three, or is just one category going to do better than the other?
Food, beverage, and retail?
Oh, better than the other? No, I think food, beverage, and retail. There will all be more openings than close.
Interesting. I hear mixed signals around that from people, and I think we don't know how certain things are going to play out, but any time there is destruction, there is also opportunity.
Right, and I think that it's incumbent upon people like us and give us credit because we do a good job of this, is oftentimes in news media, the closings get a lot more attention than the openings.
And that is because human nature biases towards the neck. Right. But not for the -
because, as I said, our bread and butter, the reason you and I started talking years ago was all these new bars and restaurants and places that were opening. And we had to talk about that.
And honestly, and this is just sharing a little bit behind the scenes, looking at the data, that's what people wanted. In 2024, I feel like I really learned something about our audience and things that shifted. And it's that people want to know about food, they want to know about openings, they want to know about the rents and they want to know about that new coffee shop in their neighborhood.
They want to hear interesting conversations with people that are making a difference or reporting out. And there are some stories in there that are more controversial, like these land speculators of Detroit where we had Aaron Mondry from Outlier Media, that did very well. But that is the kind of content that did really well in 2024.
And that makes me think people are looking for something different in media. And I know that's like an overtired thing and I'm not going to go into this whole one media versus the other. All we're going to do is take care of our house.
We are. And again, hit our bread and butter.
And whether it's a coffee shop in Islandview or a five star hotel or a city target Downtown, we're going to cover it all. And we're going to make sure you know where to go around the city, what's new, what's good, what's not so good, but we will cover it all.
All coming to you from Detroit's living room right here at TechTown. That's right! Well, with that, I'm Jer Staes.
I'm Devon O'Reilly!
Thank you so much for listening.
Devon O'Reilly, thank you so much for years of not only being on the podcast, but friendship. I really appreciate you. It's so good to have you back behind the microphone.
Great to start off 2025 with what I think is a good episode. Hope people enjoy it. And again, cheers to more to come.
Well, remember that you are somebody, and we'll see you around Detroit. Have a great weekend!
